Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28073
Authors: 
Berger, Helge
Österholm, Pär
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
Diskussionsbeiträge des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin 2008/7
Abstract: 
In this note, we use multivariate models estimated with Bayesian techniques and an out-ofsample approach to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes output growth in the United States. We find surprisingly strong evidence for a money-output link over the 1960-2005 period. However, further analysis indicates that this result is likely to be misleading; after the Great moderation, the Granger-causal role of money appears to have vanished completely.
Subjects: 
Bayesian VAR
out-of-sample forecasting
granger causality
money
output
federal reserve
Volcker
JEL: 
E47
E52
C53
C32
ISBN: 
3938369787
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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