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dc.contributor.authorLiesenfeld, Romanen
dc.contributor.authorMoura, Guilherme V.en
dc.contributor.authorRichard, Jean-Françoisen
dc.date.accessioned2009-08-27-
dc.date.accessioned2009-09-07T14:31:22Z-
dc.date.available2009-09-07T14:31:22Z-
dc.date.issued2009-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/27739-
dc.description.abstractWe use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current-account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state-dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country-specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aKiel University, Department of Economics |cKielen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aEconomics Working Paper |x2009-04en
dc.subject.jelC15en
dc.subject.jelC23en
dc.subject.jelC25en
dc.subject.jelF32en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordPanel dataen
dc.subject.keyworddynamic discrete choiceen
dc.subject.keywordimportance samplingen
dc.subject.keywordMonte Carlo integrationen
dc.subject.keywordstate dependenceen
dc.subject.keywordspillover effectsen
dc.subject.stwLeistungsbilanzen
dc.subject.stwZahlungsbilanzungleichgewichten
dc.subject.stwTerms of Tradeen
dc.subject.stwWährungsreservenen
dc.subject.stwAuslandsverschuldungen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwPanelen
dc.subject.stwEntwicklungsländeren
dc.subject.stwSchwellenländeren
dc.titleDeterminants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysis-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn60768688Xen
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:cauewp:200904en

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