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Title:Climate change and modelling of extreme temperatures in Switzerland PDF Logo
Authors:Siliverstovs, Boriss
Ötsch, Rainald
Kemfert, Claudia
Jaeger, Carlo
Haas, Armin
Kremers, Hans
Issue Date:2008
Series/Report no.:Discussion papers // German Institute for Economic Research 840
Abstract:This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.
Subjects:Climate change
GEV
Bayesian modelling
Great Alpine Heat Wave
JEL:Q54
C11
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW
DIW-Diskussionspapiere

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