Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27363
Authors: 
Siliverstovs, Boriss
Ötsch, Rainald
Kemfert, Claudia
Jaeger, Carlo
Haas, Armin
Kremers, Hans
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers 840
Abstract: 
This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.
Subjects: 
Climate change
GEV
Bayesian modelling
Great Alpine Heat Wave
JEL: 
Q54
C11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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