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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2006
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 1747
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper investigates the out-of-sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination. We compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics. Linear models tend to outperform at short forecast horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are small. In contrast, nonlinear models with more elaborate mean-reverting components dominate at longer horizons especially when deviations from long-term equilibrium are large. The results also suggest that combining different forecasting procedures generally produces more accurate forecasts than can be attained from a single model.
JEL: 
F31
C53
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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