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Title:What's on their mind: do exchange rate forecasters stick to theoretical models? PDF Logo
Authors:Schröder, Michael
Dornau, Robert
Issue Date:1999
Series/Report no.:ZEW Discussion Papers 99-08
Abstract:Do financial market analysts use structural economic models when forecasting exchange rates? This is the leading question analysed in this paper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations data instead of observable variables. Therefore we analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in mind when forming their exchange rate expectations. The economic exchange rate models included in our study are purchasing power parity, the flexible-price monetary model, the sticky-price monetary model and the Mundell-Fleming model. These models are the theoretical basis for the estimation of latent structural models using the categorical expectations data of the ZEW financial market survey. The expectation variables used to explain expected exchange rates are short term interest rates, long term interest rates and business expectations. Our results show that the flexible-price monetary model is clearly rejected, but the sticky-price monetary model (in case of DM/Pound Sterling and DM/Yen) and the Mundell-Fleming model (in case of DM/US-Dollar) are both compatible with the estimated parameters.
Subjects:Exchange rate modelling
Expectations
Survey data
Categorical Data
JEL:C35
F31
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des ZEW
ZEW Discussion Papers

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