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dc.contributor.authorHüfner, Felix P.en
dc.contributor.authorLahl, Daviden
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-16T14:47:31Z-
dc.date.available2009-02-16T14:47:31Z-
dc.date.issued2003-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983-
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In a second step these factors are used to estimate out-of-sample forecasts for the ZEW Indicator. We find that a simple model that includes German manufacturing order data, the German yield structure and the US Consumer Confidence indicator as explanatory variables is able to outperform a naive univariate benchmark model as well as the consensus forecast for the ZEW Indicator as published by news agencies.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aZentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) |cMannheimen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aZEW Discussion Papers |x03-48en
dc.subject.jelE32en
dc.subject.jelE37en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordleading indicatorsen
dc.subject.keywordGermanyen
dc.subject.keywordzewen
dc.subject.keywordforecastingen
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturindikatoren
dc.subject.stwGeschäftsklimaen
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden
dc.titleWhat Determines the ZEW Indicator?-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn856552879en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:zewdip:1357en

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