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Title:The Yield of Ten-Year T-Bonds: Stumbling Towards a 'Good' Forecast PDF Logo
Authors:Weißbach, Rafael
Ponyatovskyy, Vladyslav
Zimmermann, Guido
Issue Date:2006
Series/Report no.:Technical Report, Universität Dortmund, SFB 475 Komplexitätsreduktion in Multivariaten Datenstrukturen 2006,50
Abstract:Due to their status as "the" benchmark yield for the world's largest government bond market and its importance for US monetary policy, the interest in a "good" forecast of the constant maturity yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ("T-bond yields") is immense. This paper assesses three univariate time series models for forecasting the yield of T-bonds: It shows that a simple SETAR model proves to be superior to the random walk and an ARMA model. However, dividing the sample of bond yields, dating from 1962 to 2005, into a training sample and a test sample reveals the forecast to be biased. A new bias-corrected version is developed and forecasts for March 2005 to February 2006 are presented. In addition to point estimates forecast limits are also given.
Subjects:T-bond
times series
10-year yield
TAR model
bias-correction
non-linear time series
JEL:C52
E47
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Technical Reports, SFB 475, TU Dortmund

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