Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/19647 
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper Series 1 No. 2006,19
Publisher: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
We investigate the effects of official fiscal data and creative accounting signals on interest rate spreads between bond yields in the European Union. Our model predicts that risk premia contained in government bond spreads should increase in both, the official fiscal position and the expected "creative" part of fiscal policy. The relative importance of these two signals depends on the transparency of the country. Greater transparency reduces risk premia. The empirical results confirm the hypotheses. Creative accounting increases the spread. The increase of the risk premium is stronger if financial markets are unsure about the true extent of creative accounting. Fiscal transparency reduces risk premia. Instrumental variable regressions confirm these results by addressing potential reverse causality problems and measurement bias.
Subjects: 
Risk premia
government bond yields
creative accounting
stock-flow adjustments
gimmickry
transparency
JEL: 
F34
H6
G12
E43
E62
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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