Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/19646 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper Series 1 No. 2006,18
Publisher: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve type forecasting models. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a thorough and broad based monetary analysis is needed to extract the information content of monetary developments for future inflation.
Subjects: 
euro area
inflation
leading indicators
money
JEL: 
E31
E40
C32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
637.39 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.