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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2002
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 314
Verlag: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can help predicting turning points of the business cycle.
Schlagwörter: 
Business cycle
leading indicators
probit model
McFadden's R2
Markov switching models
JEL: 
C22
E32
C25
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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