Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/83026 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2010
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series No. 247
Verlag: 
Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm
Zusammenfassung: 
When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore proposes a generalization such that the conditions can be given as the full distribution of the restricted variables. We demonstrate, in two empirical applications, that ignoring the uncertainty about the conditions implies that the distributions of the unrestricted variables are too narrow.
Schlagwörter: 
Central Bank
Market Expectation
Restrictions
Uncertainty
JEL: 
C53
E37
E52
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
Erscheint in der Sammlung:

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
319.43 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.