Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/75720 
Year of Publication: 
2001
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 571
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to asuccessful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriatetool for forecasting business conditions.
Subjects: 
business cycles
leading indicators
turning points
Markovswitching
Germany
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Appears in Collections:

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.