Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/63980 
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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2004
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ETLA Discussion Papers No. 894
Verlag: 
The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA), Helsinki
Zusammenfassung: 
This study aims to assess the impact of the Finnish biotechnology industry on the economic growth in Finland. The study employs official data from Statistics Finland and new survey data covering 84 Finnish biotechnology companies. The study offers methodological insights into how a new emerging industry can be treated as a statistical branch in an inputoutput forecast model and how probability distributions can be utilized in the model instead of point estimates. An econometric forecast for the economy-wide growth impact of the biotechnology industry in Finland is estimated. In the estimation procedure this study employs the survey data both in forming growth anticipations within a new emerging industry and assessing inter-industrial growth effects. Applied Monte Carlo simulations predict that the contribution of the biotechnology industry to annual GDP growth in 2002-2006 will be in the range of 0.05-0.09 percentage points per annum with a probability of 90%. In comparison with the major sectors of the Finnish industry – forest industry, industry of metal products and machinery, and electronics industry – this implies that it will rather take decades instead of years for the biotechnology industry to become a fourth pillar of the Finnish economy. – biotechnology ; economic forecast ; growth contribution ; input-output model ; monte carlo simulation
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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