Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/63041 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2000
Series/Report no.: 
Memorandum No. 2000,14
Publisher: 
University of Oslo, Department of Economics, Oslo
Abstract: 
In macroeconomic models of foreign exchange markets, exchange rates are determined by public information, while trading activities are completely irrelevant. In general, these models have low explanatory power for short horizons, which might be due to the possible existence of private information. Dealers in the foreign exchange market consider the order flow from customers to be the most important source of private information. I test a microstructural trading model incorporating private information, including both order flow and macroeconomic variables. The results show that order flow is an important variable for explaining weekly changes in exchange rates, thereby indicating an important role for private information.
Subjects: 
Foreign Exchange
International Macroeconomics
Microstructure
JEL: 
G15
F31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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