Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/45995 
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 5265
Publisher: 
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
When treatments may occur at different points in time, most evaluation methods assume - implicitly or explicitly - that all the information used by subjects about the occurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the no anticipation assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals about the date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empirical analysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment of information arrival (notification) and the start of the treatment can all be characterized by duration variables. Building on the Timing of Events approach, we show that the causal effects of notification and of the treatment on the outcome are identified. We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in France which provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers about their future treatment status. We find that notification has a significant and positive effect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard no anticipation assumption and rules out a threat effect of training programs in France.
Subjects: 
evaluation of abor market programs
training
duration model
timing of events
anticipation
JEL: 
C31
C41
J64
J68
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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