Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331641 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12176
Publisher: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This paper demonstrates that a tractable heterogeneous agent endogenous growth model can quantitatively match the stylized empirical facts of long-run development trajectories of income, life expectancy, and fertility for 86 countries over the past 140 years. A decomposition of comparative development differences into contributions of country-specific "deep determinants'', accumulation forces during the historical development process, and balanced growth dynamics sheds new light on the mechanisms leading to country-specific differences in development and establishes a link between the largely disparate literatures on endogenous growth, comparative development, and growth accounting. Structural estimation results show that historical accumulation dynamics explain most of today's comparative development patterns. A quantification of the demographic dividend suggests implications for future growth dynamics.
Subjects: 
long-run growth dynamics
quantitative growth dynamics
comparative development
structural estimation
JEL: 
O10
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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