Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331608 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 12142
Publisher: 
Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This paper examines the degree of persistence of China's travel "credit" and "debt" series in the balance of payments. This is an important issue because the travel component in the balance of payments of travel is one of the main indicators measuring the contribution of tourism to a country's economic activity, and knowledge of its persistence is critical to assess the potential impact of disrupting factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is carried out using a fractional integration framework, which provides evidence of mean reversion in the credit series, but not in the debt series. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.
Subjects: 
China
travel
balance of payments
persistence
fractional integration
JEL: 
C12
C13
C22
Z30
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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