Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/326983 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
I4R Discussion Paper Series No. 264
Publisher: 
Institute for Replication (I4R), s.l.
Abstract: 
We build a dataset of output and price effects of conventional monetary policy containing 146,463 point estimates and confidence bands from 4,871 impulse-response functions in 409 primary studies. Simple average responses suggest that interest rate hikes substantially dampen output and prices. However, we find robust evidence for publication bias. Bias corrections reduce effect sizes by half or more: in response to a 100 basis points rate hike, output and prices are unlikely to fall by more than 0.5 and 0.25 percent, respectively. Shock identification choices and publication characteristics correlate with effect sizes but are quantitatively less important than publication bias.
Subjects: 
Meta-analysis
conventional monetary policy
interest rate
output
inflation
price level
publication bias
JEL: 
C83
E32
E43
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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