Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/317332 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Business Economics and Management (JBEM) [ISSN:] 2029-4433 [Volume:] 20 [Issue:] 2 [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 368-383
Publisher: 
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius
Abstract: 
The aim of this article is to prove the key role of the structure of the research sample used for accuracy determining on the accuracy of bankruptcy models. The creators of these models report the accuracy usually in the range of 60 to 90%. The authors of this article claim that these values are inaccurate and misleading. The real I. type error should be detected on a sample where obvious features of financial default were eliminated. The research tested more than 1200 of thriving businesses and also 270 businesses in future bankruptcy. The research has determined real current accuracy of selected three bankruptcy models on the standard sample of Czech businesses amounting 67.77%, 62.27% and 74.36%. This confirmed hypothesis no. 1, which says that actual accuracy of bankruptcy model is lower than original accuracy indicated by model makers. An accuracy of 58.70%, 61.59% and 65.94% was measured on a sample where businesses with obvious features of financial distress were eliminated. Due to the modification of the test sample, the order of accuracy has changed. This confirmed hypothesis no. 2. The Index of Karas and Reznakova reached the highest overall accuracy of 80.31% including incorrect prediction of bankruptcy also.
Subjects: 
corporate default
bankrupt models
financial distress
prediction accuracy
JEL: 
C52
C53
G32
M21
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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