Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316937 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11823
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This paper studies the role of dataset choices for trade policy estimates in structural gravity models. Using twelve publicly available data sources and applying alternative and commonly used dataset restrictions, we obtain 586 estimates for the EU membership trade effects from a standard structural gravity model specification. These estimates are used in a meta-regression analysis to shed light on potential sources for heterogeneity in the obtained EU membership trade effects. The meta study reveals a crucial role of domestic trade flows for the effect size of the EU membership trade effect estimate. The estimated EU trade effect is on average 20 percentage points larger in datasets that include domestic trade flows. The effect size of the EU membership trade effect estimates also vary with the time- and country coverage, across time interval and consecutive year panel data, alternative product classifications, the level of sectoral disaggregation in the data and the use of imports as alternative measure for trade flow. Alternative estimation packages do not significantly alter the effect size of our estimates for the EU membership trade effects. The paper concludes with some recommendations on data source selection and dataset restrictions.
Subjects: 
trade policy
EU membership trade effects
gravity models
meta study
meta-regression analysis.
JEL: 
F13
F14
F15
C80
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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