Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/312088 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 11578
Publisher: 
CESifo GmbH, Munich
Abstract: 
This study investigates the case of Iran to evaluate how changes in the intensity of international sanctions affect internal conflict in the target country. Estimating a vector autoregressive model for the period between 2001q2 and 2020q3 with quarterly data on internal conflict and its three subcomponents (civil disorder, terrorism, and civil war) as well as a sanction intensity index, we find that an unexpected increase in sanction intensity causes an increase in both civil disorder and terrorism risk. In contrast, the risk of civil war declines after an increase in sanction intensity. These findings for Iran indicate that higher intensity sanctions may allow sender country governments to put pressure on target country political regimes without risking an outbreak of major violent conflicts. Therefore, more intensive sanctions, may also not be helpful in inducing violent regime change.
Subjects: 
sanctions
sanction intensity
internal conflict
civil disorder
terrorism
civil war
VAR model
Iran
JEL: 
D74
F51
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Appears in Collections:

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.