Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/287445 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Uncertainty [ISSN:] 1573-0476 [Volume:] 62 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] Springer US [Place:] New York, NY [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 247-280
Publisher: 
Springer US, New York, NY
Abstract: 
The empirical literature points to a stylized phenomenon of increased demand for hope following adversity. Clotfelter and Cook (1989) suggest that hope is a key sentiment underpinning recreational gambling. Chew and Ho (1994, this journal) offer the view of hope being experienced in lottery products when people enjoy delaying the resolution of uncertainty. Taking air quality as an indicator of subjective well-being, we hypothesize a positive causal relationship between air pollution and lottery sales. We test this hypothesis using data from China and find that air pollution measured by particle concentration increases demand for a popular lottery for which province-level daily sales records exist. The relationship can readily be seen on combining high-frequency, spatially resolved lottery sales and particle pollution data. Our findings support the adversity-hope hypothesis in the context of air quality and lottery sales and point to further tests using other measures of adversity and proxies of demand for hope.
Subjects: 
Adversity
Hope
Attitudes toward risk and hope
Environmental degradation
Air pollution
Lottery demand
Particulate matter
Haze
Smog
Instrumental variables
JEL: 
D12
D91
D81
G41
H23
L83
Q51
Q53
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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