Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/282568 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10880
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Using Russia as a case study and a global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geo-political risk shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine revealed a contraction of GDP and an increase in inflation. Eastern European neighboring countries are particularly affected by the Russian geopolitical risk shock. We also document a strong component of the Russian geopolitical risk shock that is not driven by fossil fuel prices.
Subjects: 
geopolitical risk
international business cycle transmission
global VAR model
Russia
JEL: 
C32
E32
F51
F52
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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