Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280832 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies [ISSN:] 2345-752X [Volume:] 11 [Issue:] 3 [Article No.:] 2350018 [Publisher:] World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd [Place:] Singapore [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 1-23
Publisher: 
World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd, Singapore
Abstract: 
Climate change poses mounting risks to agricultural development and rural livelihoods in Nigeria. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on agricultural sector employment in Nigeria. Agriculture provides income and sustenance for much of Nigeria’s rural population. However, smallholder rain-fed farming predominates, with minimal resilience to climate shifts. Historical data reveal rising temperatures and declining, erratic rainfall across Nigeria’s agro-ecological zones since the 1970s. Crop modeling predicts further climate changes will reduce yields of key staple crops. This threatens the viability of smallholder agriculture and risks widespread job losses. The study adopts a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling approach to evaluate climate change effects on agricultural sector employment in Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. Findings reveal reduced rainfall initially raises employment, as farming requires more labor in dry conditions. However, protracted droughts significantly reduce agricultural jobs. Increased temperatures consistently lower farm employment through reduced yields and incomes. Based on these findings, the study recommends that adaptive strategies are urgently needed to build resilience, promote climate-smart agriculture, and safeguard rural livelihoods.
Subjects: 
Climate change
agricultural employment
temperature
rainfal
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version
Appears in Collections:

Files in This Item:
File
Size
688.6 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.