Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/279397 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Forecasting [ISSN:] 1099-131X [Volume:] 42 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] Wiley [Place:] Hoboken, NJ [Year:] 2023 [Pages:] 625-642
Publisher: 
Wiley, Hoboken, NJ
Abstract: 
This paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with, a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for the violation of the Taylor rule.
Subjects: 
disagreement
expectations
foreign exchange
survey data
Taylor rule
Turkish lira
uncertainty
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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