Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/279308 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10558
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn's (1998) approach through Schlicht's (2003) method. Then, by taking these sustainability coefficients in a nonlinear local projection model for the Euro Area (aggregate data), Germany, Italy, and Portugal, we analyze the interaction between both policies under (un)sustainable fiscal regimes. Our results show that in a Ricardian regime, output and prices respond to monetary tightening by contracting, while in a non-Ricardian regime the effect on output and price levels is negligible (or even positive). The dependence of the effectiveness of monetary policy on fiscal solvency is valid for Euro-Area and all the countries assessed, and does not depend on whether a country is "core" or "periphery", but on the policy conduct over time.
Subjects: 
monetary surprises
fiscal sustainability
local-projection models
fiscal-monetary policy mix
Euro area
Germany
Italy
Portugal
JEL: 
C32
E58
E62
E63
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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