Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278237 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
KOF Working Papers No. 507
Publisher: 
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Zurich
Abstract: 
In this paper, we investigate the transmission channels of oil price shocks using a factorial survey. We confront CEOs and CFOs of a representative sample of firms with a hypothetical vignette in which the oil price rises exogenously above managers' baseline expectations. The managers then estimate the short- and medium-term cost, price, and output effects of the shock on their firms. We find that the managers expect the shock to have very different effects on their firms: the cross-sectional distributions of the responses are large, skewed, and have fat tails. Higher firm-specific energy input costs lead managers to expect greater output losses and sales price increases. Higher market power accelerates this input cost effect. Another important determinant is managers' pre-shock uncertainty about business prospects. The importance of the three channels varies considerably across industries.
Subjects: 
Oil price shocks
transmission channels
firms
expectations
surveys
vignettes
JEL: 
C83
D22
D84
E31
E32
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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