Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/274591 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
IMK Working Paper No. 217
Publisher: 
Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung (IMK), Düsseldorf
Abstract: 
This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to examine the relationships between the intensity of drilling (i.e. investment) for natural gas production, natural gas withdrawals, economic activity and natural gas prices in the United States. The results show that the reaction of drilling to an unexpected change in natural gas prices depends on the source of the price change. Specifically, I find that the reaction of drilling is significantly stronger after an economic activity shock than after a gas demand shock (e.g. due to oil price fluctuations). In addition, it is shown that demand-side factors were more important than supply-side factors in explaining the 85% drop in natural gas prices from June 2008 to April 2012. This contradicts prevailing explanations focused on shale gas development and should dampen the expectations of policy makers seeking to rapidly expand shale gas production in order to obtain similar cheap energy as the U.S. after 2008.
Subjects: 
natural gas
natural gas prices
energy
energy crisis
fracking
shale gas
gas drilling
gas supply
gas demand
economics
macroeconomics
energy economics
time series
econometrics
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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