Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/273887 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics No. 03-2023
Publisher: 
Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg
Abstract: 
This study aims to simulate the future trends of carbon emissions under different international sanction scenarios in Iran. A System Dynamics (SD) model is developed and several variables that capture multiple levels of economic, social, and environmental concepts are taken into account. Our findings indicate that, despite Iran's sluggish economic growth, fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions will rise in the scenarios with international sanctions. Imposed sanctions on Iran exacerbate the environmental negative externalities through increasing energy intensity of economic sectors and consequently cause more CO2 emissions. Thus, based on our findings, prolonging international sanctions could be a major barrier to improving energy intensity and lowering CO2 emissions. Given the potential unintended environmental consequences of international sanctions, this study suggests that international communities, particularly sanctioning countries, should consider the environmental impacts of sanctions in their policy-making decisions in order to reduce emissions and related environmental damages.
Subjects: 
Sanctions
System Dynamics
Environmental Impacts
Simulation
CO2 Emissions
Iran
JCPOA
JEL: 
P18
F51
Q2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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