Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271924 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 10280
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when quarterly economic growth for Germany becomes available. We use the new data for an in-depth business cycle analysis and to estimate long-run growth dynamics. The business cycle analysis reveals large heterogeneities in the duration and amplitudes of state-specific fluctuations as well as in the degrees of cyclical concordance. Long-run trends are found to vary tremendously, with positive developments in economically strong regions and flat or even negative trends for economically much weaker states.
Subjects: 
regional economic activity
mixed-frequency Vector Autoregression
regional business cycles
concordance
Bayesian methods
JEL: 
C32
C53
E32
R11
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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