Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/267403 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 15666
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
This paper is an innovative attempt to empirically investigate the determinants of crude oil prices. The main objective is to distinguish between short- and long-term effects of some covariates on oil prices. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is applied to daily series spanning the period from January 2, 2003, to May 24, 2021, to analyze long-run relationships and short-run dynamics. The paper also focuses on the asymmetric effects of covariates and a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approach is used to explore this asymmetry. The use of an asymmetric error correction model with asymmetric cointegration provides new insights for examining the determinants of oil prices. All investigations of underlying oil price fluctuations are examined both before and in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results, based on different econometric specifications, have key policy implications for policymakers both with and without COVID-19 potential considerations.
Subjects: 
crude oil price
ARDL
Nonlinear ARDL
symmetric and asymmetric
COVID-19
JEL: 
C5
Q4
Q43
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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