Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/264675 
Year of Publication: 
2003
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 83
Publisher: 
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Vienna
Abstract: 
In the present paper, time series on industrial production growth of individual countries are used to investigate the following questions: (i) Is there a common growth cycle for the euro area countries? (ii) Did the synchronization change over time? (iii) Can we discriminate between a "European" and an "overseas" cycle? (iv) Which countries follow the "overseas" rather than the "European" cycle? To obtain the inference, I use an autoregressive panel data framework whereby the groups of co-moving countries are estimated adaptively along with the model parameters using Bayesian simulation methods.
Subjects: 
Business cycle
Bayesian clustering
Markov switching
Markov chain Monte Carlo
panel data
JEL: 
C15
C33
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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