Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/264265 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Citation: 
[Journal:] West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration [ISSN:] 0855-594X [Volume:] 20 [Issue:] 1b [Publisher:] West African Monetary Institute (WAMI) [Place:] Accra [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 38-76
Publisher: 
West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), Accra
Abstract: 
The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic presents an unprecedented and synchronized disruption of the economies of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). This study uses the Conditional Fan Chart based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to forecast the effects of the pandemic on three key macroeconomic variables that include consumer price index, gross domestic product, and external reserves. Annualized data spanning from 2000Q1 to 2020Q2 were used to forecast the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 on the economies of WAMZ Member States from 2020Q3 to 2022Q4. The result forecast general deterioration in the selected macroeconomic variables. The pessimistic scenario further reveals that heightened uncertainty, the prominence of downside side risks from the second wave will worsen economic conditions in the WAMZ.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Macroeconomic Effect
Fan chart
WAMZ
JEL: 
C01
E65
F45
F62
Document Type: 
Article

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