Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/263431 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 15215
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
This paper assesses the causal impact of greater market access on demographic transition during the latter half of the 19th century in the United States. We construct new measures of fertility changes and measures of railroad access at the county level from 1850 – 1890. We are able to document market-access-induced changes in fertility due to both extensive margins (shifts in occupations with different average fertility rates) and intensive margins (changes in fertility within each occupation class). Both our theoretical model and empirical results suggest that declining fertility in counties mainly occurred through extensive margins. We further discover that fertility changes occurred mainly through strengthening patterns of specialization, rather than through greater industrialization or urbanization, suggesting that demographics diverged within the United States during this period.
Subjects: 
demographic transition
market access
railroads
fertility
agricultural production
manufacturing production
JEL: 
J11
J13
N11
N31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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