Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/258181 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Risks [ISSN:] 2227-9091 [Volume:] 9 [Issue:] 5 [Article No.:] 93 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1-7
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
Forecasting of LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel prices remains an interesting topic but lacks consensus. This study aims to fill knowledge gaps by demonstrating the announcement effect of export bans by the Indonesian government. This article focuses on Indonesia because Indonesia produces more than 60% of global nickel ore. We identified the sequence of two episodes in which Indonesian export bans of nickel ore appeared to increase LME nickel prices. The impact of the Indonesian export ban in 2014 is somewhat larger than that of 2019. The shock on the LME nickel market in 2014 was sustained for a while after the ban was implemented. We believe that this is the first export ban that has had unexpected effects within the market.
Subjects: 
announcement effect
Indonesian export bans
cumulative forecasting error
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
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