Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/247049 
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
EHES Working Papers in Economic History No. 118
Publisher: 
European Historical Economics Society (EHES), s.l.
Abstract: 
Since Adam Smith, most economists have held the belief that trade fosters economic growth, although it has not been possible to establish a strong causal relationship. The results of growth regressions are, at best, mixed, and several historical studies have found a positive relationship between tariffs and economic growth in the nineteenth century. This paper adopts a different strategy. We look for cointegration between GDP per capita and openness for about thirty countries since 1830. About half return no cointegration – i.e. no relationship. The rest show mixed results, which change through time. An ordered probit model suggests that significantly positive relationships are more likely at low-to-middle income levels.
Subjects: 
Openness
growth
VECM
cointegration
trade
JEL: 
F1
N1
N7
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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