Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/242526 
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Economics Working Paper Series No. 2014/03
Publisher: 
Auckland University of Technology (AUT), Faculty of Business, Economics and Law, Auckland
Abstract: 
We use predictive modelling to identify students at risk of not completing their first-year courses and not returning to university in the second year. Our aim is two-fold. Firstly, we want to understand the pathways that lead to unsuccessful first-year experiences at university. Secondly, we want to develop simple, low-cost tools that would allow universities to identify and intervene on vulnerable students when they first arrive on campus. This is why we base our analysis on administrative data routinely collected as part of the enrolment process from a New Zealand university. We assess the 'target effectiveness' of our model from a number of perspectives. This approach is found to be substantially more predictive than a previously developed risk tool at this university. Students in the top decile of risk scores account for over 29% of first-year course non-completions and more than 23% of second-year student non-retentions at this university
Subjects: 
Predictive Risk Modelling
University Failure and Dropout Behaviour
and New Zealand
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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