Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/241237 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No. 2021-14
Publisher: 
Bank of Canada, Ottawa
Abstract: 
We build a model for bond yields based on a small-scale representation of an economy with secular declines in inflation, the real rate and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that influence long-run inflation but do not influence the long-run real rate or output growth. These nominal shocks have loadings that can change over time. The results show that, before the anchoring of inflation around the mid-1990s, nominal shocks lifted the output gap and inflation, leading to higher yields and a steeper yield curve via higher shortrate expectations and term premiums. The short rate peaked after several quarters but only after the responses of growth and inflation started to decline. With inflation anchored, however, nominal shocks have a short-lived impact on inflation, an insignificant impact on output and only a small impact on bond yields via the term premium.
Subjects: 
Asset Pricing
Interest rates
Monetary policy and uncertainty
Potential output
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL: 
E43
G12
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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