Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/240750 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Texto para Discussão No. 2555
Publisher: 
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Brasília
Abstract (Translated): 
The vector autoregressive and structural vector autoregressive (VAR/SVAR) models are the cornerstone of the contemporaneous empirical macroeconomic research, in particular for measuring the impact of fiscal policy shocks. They may be employed as atheoretical models, as well as a mean to support the estimation and to test dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models - the main theoretical tool for modern macroeconomics. Nevertheless, VAR models may be subject to pathologies, such as the non-causality and the non-fundamentalness. They are capable of biasing the estimates in any direction or intensity. The former is related to the existence of explosive roots in the autoregressive polynomials from stationary processes. The latter consists of the non-invertibility of the moving average (MA) representation on the positive powers of the lag operator. Both refer to the insufficiency of the econometrician's data to estimate the model's correct parameters. This study is the first to employ the latest and most efficient tests for non-fundamentalness: the Mario Forni and Luca Gambetti and the Fabio Canova e Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, in order to test for these pathologies in Brazilian typical fiscal VAR model using contemporary data. The data and model were found to be non-fundamental.
Subjects: 
fiscal policy
VAR
macroeconometrics
causality
fundamentalness
JEL: 
C11
C32
C53
E3
E6
E31
H6
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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