Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/238866 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2018
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Financial Management [ISSN:] 1911-8074 [Volume:] 11 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2018 [Pages:] 1-20
Verlag: 
MDPI, Basel
Zusammenfassung: 
This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.
Schlagwörter: 
ASEAN
GARCH
stochastic volatility
Value-at-Risk
JEL: 
C58
F37
G15
G17
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