Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/226467 
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers on Population, Family and Welfare No. 24
Publisher: 
Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest
Abstract: 
In a simple cohort model we carry out a projection based on current per capita age profiles of labour income and consumption and combine them with Hungary's expected future age composition. We use 2012 Hungarian data. Due to a shrinking and ageing population this exercise predicts a growing gap between labour income and consumption in Hungary, which will  have to be covered by asset-based revenues. We apply two balancing items: a windfall capital endowment in the base year, and gradual capital accumulation through higher savings. We also quantify how much the household economy, an integral but unregistered part of a modern economy, can absorb the effects of ageing. In addition, we test against a model using  demographic data from 1995. The two decades between the mid-1990s and the mid-2010s offered a special demographic opportunity for Hungary and coincided with the botched prefunding experiment in the public pension system. We demonstrate the potential of this missed opportunity.
Subjects: 
macroeconomic consequences of demographic trends
National Transfer Accounts
unpaid household labour
pension reform
JEL: 
N33
ISBN: 
978-963-9597-39-6
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.