Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/219156 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8338
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various non-pharmaceutical interventions to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. Taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions, we remove concurrent policy bias from the effect of each policy of interest, and we establish that policies curb the epidemic by changing population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiologically relevant considerations. We are thus able to shed light on the mechanisms through which confinement measures contribute to “flattening the curve”.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
2019 novel coronavirus
pandemic
mobility
confinement measures
lockdown
quarantine
transmission
behaviour
incidence
compliance
non-pharmaceutical interventions
NPI
basic reproduction number
R0
SIR model
JEL: 
I12
I18
C23
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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