Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/219153 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8335
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
I present a stylized suspected-infected-recovered (SIR) model of COVID-19, with symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, and social distancing intervention. The optimal suppress strategy has low-infection rates, enabling assumptions that support closed-form solutions. The model predicts high costs of social distancing in comparison to health costs of the disease; it separates public versus private benefits of social distancing, and determines the required level of group immunity for relaxing social distance intervention. I extend the model with heterogeneous population for preferences over social contacts, health costs, and transmission. Heterogeneity in transmission intensity offers most opportunities for reduced costs under a differentiated social distancing policy.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
SIR model
suppression
(differentiated) social distancing
JEL: 
I18
E17
D62
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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