Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/219150 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8332
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to bunker fuel costs. Our analysis shows that time charter rates respond only slightly to fuel cost shocks. In response to higher fuel costs, voyage profits decline, as cost shocks are only partially passed on to round-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks are associated with higher profits, a slight increase in time charter rates and slightly lower fuel prices and oil export volumes. Tanker supply and tanker demand shocks have persistent effects on time charter rates, round-trip voyage rates, the volume of oil exports, fuel prices, and profits with the expected sign.
Subjects: 
shipping
VLCC
crude oil
bunker fuel
tanker
voyage
time charter
profits
exports
passthrough
JEL: 
Q43
R41
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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