Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/211607 
Year of Publication: 
1991
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Discussion Papers No. 4/1991
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Helsinki
Abstract: 
The aim of this paper is to specify a small econometric model capable of generating adjustment-free, short-run forecasts of key macroeconomic variables on a monthly basis. The aim is carried out using the vector autoregression approach in conjunction with a Bayesian specification procedure. The Bayesian approach to forecasting is reviewed and applied using Finnish data from the 1980s. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model is found to be satisfactory.
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
951-686-279-9
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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