Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/192952 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
IWH Discussion Papers No. 4/2019
Publisher: 
Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Halle (Saale)
Abstract: 
We use the World Input Output Database (WIOD) to estimate the potential employment effects of a hard Brexit in 43 countries. In line with other studies we assume that imports from the European Union (EU) to the UK will decline by 25% after a hard Brexit. The absolute effects are largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK like Germany and France. However, there are also large countries outside the EU which are heavily affected via global value chains like China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) are largest in Malta and Ireland. UK employment will also be affected via intermediate input production. Within Germany, the motor vehicle industry and in particular the 'Autostadt' Wolfsburg are most affected.
Subjects: 
Brexit
employment
European Union
international trade
tariffs
JEL: 
C67
D57
F16
R15
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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