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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/19063
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DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem | en |
dc.contributor.author | Weale, Martin R. | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-01-28T15:54:47Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2009-01-28T15:54:47Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2005 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19063 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling ofexpectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importanceof allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rationalexpectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individualexpectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptiveexpectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational andextrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function forthe interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of thevarious surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitativesurveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis ofexpectations and for forecasting. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aCenter for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo) |cMunich | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aCESifo Working Paper |x1599 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C53 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C50 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C40 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C80 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | models of expectations formation | en |
dc.subject.keyword | survey data | en |
dc.subject.keyword | heterogeneity | en |
dc.subject.keyword | tests of rational expectations | en |
dc.subject.stw | Rationale Erwartung | en |
dc.subject.stw | Erwartungstheorie | en |
dc.title | Survey expectations | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 503765929 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
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