Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/182001 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2018
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IWH Discussion Papers No. 15/2018
Verlag: 
Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), Halle (Saale)
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative expectation formation assumptions and financial frictions. We also show how standard model features, such as price and wage rigidities, contribute to forecasting performance. It turns out that neither alternative expectation formation behaviour nor financial frictions can systematically increase the forecasting performance of basic DSGE models. Financial frictions improve forecasts only during periods of financial crises. However, traditional price and wage rigidities systematically help to increase the forecasting performance.
Schlagwörter: 
business cycles
economic forecasting
expectation formation
financial frictions
macroeconomic modelling
JEL: 
C32
C53
E37
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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