Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/153478 
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 1044
Publisher: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper investigates whether information from foreign yield curves helps forecast domestic yield curves out-of-sample. A nested methodology to forecast yield curves in domestic and international settings is applied on three major countries (the US, Germany and the UK). This novel methodology is based on dynamic factor models, the EM algorithm and the Kalman filter. The domestic model is compared vis-á-vis an international one, where information from foreign yield curves is allowed to enrich the information set of the domestic yield curve. The results have interesting and original implications. They reveal clear international dependency patterns, strong enough to improve forecasts of Germany and to a lesser extent UK. The US yield curve exhibits a more independent behaviour. In this way, the paper also generalizes anecdotal evidence on international interest rate linkages to the whole yield curve.
Subjects: 
dynamic factor model
EM algorithm
international linkages
Yield curve forecast
JEL: 
F31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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