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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2007
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 734
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper estimates the size and dynamics of inflation risk premia in the euro area, based on a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics. Information from both nominal and index-linked yields is used in the empirical analysis. Our results indicate that term premia in the euro area yield curve reflect pre-dominantly real risks, i.e. risks which affect the returns on both nominal and index-linked bonds. On average, inflation risk premia were negligible during the EMU period but, occasionally, subject to statistically significant fluctuations in 2004-2006. Movements in the raw break-even rate appear to have mostly reflected such variations in inflation risk premia, while long-term inflation expectations have remained remarkably anchored from 1999 to date.
Schlagwörter: 
central bank credibility
ination risk premia
Term structure of interest rates
JEL: 
E43
E44
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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